Canada's Future is in Asia:

Policymakers have been trying to bring Canadian executives to the Pacific for years. Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, used a speech in 2012 to counter the excuse that Canadian companies were not competitive; Carney presented evidence that showed exporters had difficulties after the crisis because they were overexposed to slow-growing markets such as the United States and Europe. (More than a dozen Asian countries grew at least 5% that year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The United States economy expanded by 2.2% and that of Europe stagnated). Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper signed the Transpacific Association, a free trade agreement that would unite 12 nations on the Pacific coast. The new government of Justin Trudeau has not yet said if it will remain in the TPP, but it would be a shock if he resigned. Asia is in the mind of the leader of Canada. The only two nations mentioned by name in Trudeau's mandate letter to the Minister of Commerce, Chrystia Freeland, are China, Pakistan, and India. He referred to them twice. (Neither China nor India is members of the TPP.)
A pivot to Asia may already be underway. Merchandise exports to China continue to grow, and the world's No. 2 economy is now firmly the second largest trading partner of Canada after the United States. Shipments of products to India rose to a record in the third quarter, according to data published by Statistics Canada last week. Asia's third-largest economy is on track to jump over France, Germany, and the Netherlands to become the seventh largest merchandise export market in Canada. South Korea, with which Canada signed a free trade agreement that came into force in January, is on track to secure its place as an economic partner more important than any of the major continental European countries.

Americans are even more important to Canadian traders: Americans bought 76% of the $ 134 billion in goods that Canadian companies shipped abroad in the third quarter. The United Kingdom is the third largest destination for Canadian merchandise exports after China. Japan is number 4 and Mexico is number 5. Reorganization occurs in the bottom half of the Top 10. When the books are closed in 2015, it is likely that India and South Korea have supplanted continental Europe in the league table of export of Canada. Canada sent $ 1.4 billion worth of goods to India in the third quarter, an increase of 78% from the previous quarter and almost double the amount of the previous year, because consecutive droughts increased demand and prices of lentils and other legumes. Until the end of the third quarter, exports of Canadian products to India were valued at $ 3.16 billion, slightly less than the $ 3.19 billion of material shipped to South Korea.
 Is the change permanent? Probably, even if only due to the gravitational attraction of the growing demand. But there is still a reason for the ability of Canadian companies to make the most of it. As I argued earlier, corporate Canada is notoriously shy. Glen Hodgson, a former Canadian finance official who is now a senior economist at the Conference Board of Canada, describes Canada's business performance as mediocre over the last decade. That is problematic because the trade winds have changed since Carney's speech more than three years ago. Hodgson calls it the "next era of commerce."

The real long-term money will still be made in places where English is not the first language. But the superstars of the emerging markets of a few years ago: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa; The BRICS no longer grow in a straight line to the north. China is slowing as Beijing tries to organize a soft landing from years of unsustainably fast economic growth. Brazil and Russia are in recession; According to the IMF, South Africa's GDP will increase by only 1.3% in 2016. These three countries were severely affected by the collapse in commodity prices. Only India retains some brightness. It is now the world's fastest-growing economy, advancing at an annual rate of around 7.5%.
The collapse of oil and other commodity prices has also not helped Canada. It has eliminated wealth that could otherwise be used to finance expansion and technological upgrades. The Canadian dollar has weakened to about 75 cents against the United States currency, which makes Canadian goods and services relatively cheaper on the world market, but raising the cost of investing abroad. The economy of the USA UU He will not frighten anyone with his vigor, but he seems to find a decent impulse. That's good for Canada, at least in the short term.
This is a difficult environment. Hodgson and the Conference Board are in the midst of an assessment of whether Canadian companies are up to the challenge. "Our preliminary assessment is that they are not," Hodgson said in a comment earlier this month. He laments the sad amount of money that Canadian executives spent on their businesses in recent years. Now, either they are struggling to keep up with the orders or they can not approach new markets. "It is primarily the responsibility of companies, not policymakers, to improve their game through investment," said Hodgson.